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Brian Hiltner, James Hyde, Anthony Chin, Patrick Ringler



The Munich Conference 1938

Research Question:

Was signing the Munich Pact of 1938 the best decision to accomodate the Allies' goals?

Results Summary:

Based on the results of the MADM analysis, we believe the best decision was in fact to sign the pact. However, the allies should have made an effort to enforce the original territorial agreements

In hindsight, conflict with Nazi Germany may have been inevitable. However, by using international pressure, the Allies may have been able to contain the war and stop Hitler before he acquired Czechoslovakian resources and other territories.



Our topic analyzes whether or not the Allies should have signed The Munich Pact in September, 1938. This is one of the most controvertial topics in history. Many sources cite the signing of this pact and the succession of Czechoslovakian territory as the primary cause of the second world war. This is an important topic because the decision made by the Allies had profound implications for the entire world.


Several months before September 1938, Hitler had pressured Czechoslovakia into ceding its territories with a majority German population. The Allies signed the Munich Pact in hopes of preserving peace in Europe, but the Czechoslovakian territory ceded to Germany gave its' war machine access to vast resources, manufacturing plants, and the capability to start war in Europe. Had the Allies not signed the pact and pursued another course of action, World War II may have never happened.

Decision Analysis

To investigate this topic, our team used the MADM (Multiple Attribute Decision Making) decision analysis tool.

Words of Estimative Probability

Our team used words of estimative probability (WEP) to convey likelihood of an analysis coming to fruition. Team members used WEPs in descending level of confidence from: all but certain, highly likely, likely, chances are even, unlikely, highly unlikely.

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